On October 25, Brazil held its presidential runoff, and the 81-year-old former metalworker Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerged victorious, securing a historic fourth term. The final tally gave Lula 51.79% of the vote against right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, a margin of roughly four million votes. The result marked the first time since the country’s return to democracy in 1988 that a candidate who finished second in the first round managed to win the presidency.
How the numbers turned the tide
The first round, held on October 4, left Bolsonaro with 47% of the vote and Lula with 45%, just short of the absolute majority needed to avoid a second round. With 33.5 million voters still absent and 6 million ballots cancelled, both campaigns focused on mobilising the undecided and the previously inactive electorate. Lula’s team leaned heavily on a WhatsApp channel known as “Lula’s Army,” which swelled to 10.8 million followers between the two rounds. The platform dispatched urgent messages – “No food before the mission!” – urging supporters to vote, and many analysts credit the digital push for helping Lula overturn the first-round deficit.
Political backdrop and personal history
Lula’s life story reads like a Brazilian epic. Born in Pernambuco as the seventh of eight siblings, he entered the workforce at age 14, operating a lathe at the Indústrias Villares factory in São Paulo. A later accident with an industrial press cost him the pinky on his left hand, a permanent reminder of his working-class roots. He rose to lead the metalworkers’ union, clashed with the military regime, spent a year and a half in prison on corruption charges that were later annulled, and served two successful terms from 2003 to 2010. After a brief third term in 2023, he returned to the Oval Office, now accompanied by his third wife, Rosângela “Janja” Lula da Silva, whom he married in 2022.
Health concerns have trailed Lula for years. Diagnosed with throat cancer in 2011, he later underwent superficial radiation therapy on his scalp after a skin tumor was removed. Throughout the campaign he reassured voters that his condition was stable, a point that helped calm doubts about his capacity to lead at 81.
Reactions, institutions, and the road ahead
Both the Senate president, Davi Alcolumbre, and the Chamber of Deputies president, Hugo Motta, who hail from centre-right parties, publicly congratulated Lula and declared the election valid. Bolsonaro, however, has refused to concede, claiming the Supreme Court’s decision to extend polling hours by two hours – a request made jointly by both candidates – invalidated the result.
In his victory speech, Lula described the outcome as “a defeat for denialism, a defeat for lies,” and thanked the “youth who took to the streets to defend democracy” as well as the elders who turned out to vote. He warned against foreign meddling, naming former U.S. President Donald Trump and digital platforms, and declared, “This country will not accept being anyone’s backyard.” He also pledged to work with a Congress that, for the first time since the mid-1980s, is the most conservative in Brazil’s democratic era, with the PL party – led by the Bolsonaro family – holding the largest bloc in both chambers.
Markets reacted sharply to the surprise outcome. The BOVESPA index plunged more than 14 % on the day, reflecting investor anxiety over Lula’s fiscal stance, his resistance to deep spending cuts, and the country’s sizable public debt. Analysts note that the index had been rising on expectations of a Bolsonaro win, which promised lower taxes and deregulation.
Beyond the numbers, the election highlighted the power of grassroots mobilisation. A 79-year-old voter, Norma, suffered a stroke just weeks before the election but insisted on casting her ballot, saying, “while we’re still alive, we should vote until the end of our lives for our country.” Stories like hers underscore the personal stakes that drove turnout despite the polarised climate.
Looking forward, Lula faces the challenge of governing with a right-leaning Congress while maintaining his progressive agenda. He has already signalled willingness to compromise, having moderated several policies during his current term. The next four years will test his ability to balance social spending, debt management, and the demands of a politically divided nation.
