Global GDP growth projections
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2024, a decline from 3.4% in 2023. This slowdown is linked to persistent inflationary pressures and tightening monetary policies in major economies.
Inflation rates and central bank policies
Inflation is expected to stabilize at an average of 4.5% in developed markets, down from 5.6% in 2023. Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are anticipated to maintain their policy rates, with the Fed’s rate expected to hover around 5.25% by mid-2024.
Sectoral performance: Technology vs. Energy
The technology sector is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. In contrast, the energy sector may experience a growth rate of 2.0% due to fluctuating oil prices and increasing competition from renewable sources.
Trade dynamics and geopolitical risks
Global trade volumes are forecasted to increase by 4.0%, supported by a recovery in consumer demand. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, pose significant risks to trade stability and could impact growth projections.
Employment trends and labor market considerations
The global unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.2%, with labor shortages in key sectors such as technology and healthcare. This stability may contribute to wage growth, projected to rise by 3.0% in real terms.