Global GDP growth rate forecast for 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global GDP growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase from 2.9% in 2024. This anticipated growth is attributed to a rebound in consumer spending and a recovery in trade following disruptions caused by the pandemic.
Regional economic performance
Emerging markets are expected to lead global growth, with countries such as India and Brazil projected to expand by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. In contrast, advanced economies like the United States and Eurozone are expected to experience more modest growth rates of approximately 2.0% and 2.2%.
Inflation rates and central bank policies
Inflation rates are predicted to stabilize globally around 3.0%, significantly lower than the peak of 7.0% observed in 2022. Central banks are likely to maintain interest rates at current levels, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates between 4.5% and 5.0% to manage inflation without hindering growth.
Unemployment trends and labor market dynamics
The global unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 5.2% in 2025, down from 5.5% in 2024. Labor markets are tightening, particularly in sectors such as technology and healthcare, resulting in wage increases and enhanced worker conditions.
Geopolitical risks and their economic impact
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and Asia, pose significant risks. The potential for escalated conflicts could adversely affect trade routes and commodity prices, impacting global supply chains and overall economic stability.